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Great stuff

Irrational exuberance and animal spirits drive markets into bubbles. Benjamin Graham writes about this, John Maynard Keynes writes about this, and Robert Shiller writes about this. What makes Shiller different? Two things.

1. He tries to add a healthy dose of empiricism to his arguments. Much of his statistical work can be used and taken off of his website and is interesting to look at.
2. He's the only one alive of those three authors. Shiller was among a small handful of people who called the real estate boom a bubble and attempted to get the word out. Unfortunately, irrational exuberance and animal spirits kept the bubble swelling. In the end, Shiller was proven correct.

I don't think Shiller gets the attention he deserves and Irrational Exuberance is definitely worth a read.

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10 May 2010
View Keatz's Profile

Makes good points

Schiller makes some very good points regarding the stock and real estate markets. This was useful for me as I am looking into getting into the beaten down real estate market. The book describes the many bubbles over the last century which can be predicted to burst. Of course the question is when, historical averages only give you rough idea but can keep you out of being trapped in a bursting bubble.

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4 of 4 people have found this review helpful.

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15 June 2010
View Luke11's Profile

Market Inefficiency

Shiller attempts to prove mathematically that markets are inefficient. Shiller compiles large amounts of data and performs detailed statistical analysis. He shows that markets are more volatile than they would be if they only reacted to information that affects fundamentals.

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1 of 1 people have found this review helpful.

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01 December 2009
View Dreagan's Profile

Great Factual Read

The author is Robert Schiller and the book reads very similarly to the columns that Jeremy Siegel writes on Yahoo Finance. I believe the author is a professor at Yale and Harvard and he basically looks at both the stock market and real estate market metrics that can be used for valuation. The point the book makes is that at certain points over the last century there have been bubbles and they can be predicted to burst based on what the historical averages are. Schiller is an economist and not a trader, but I still think his ideas are good for making money.

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31 December 2009
View Momcinto's Profile

I don't that I completely buy this guy's opinion

Recommend it. I don't that I completely buy this guy's opinion although I do respect it.... he makes the point that at certain times over the last century there have been bubbles which can be predicted to burst based on what the historical averages are. OK. Exactly when will these "bubbles" burst. I believe bubbles can go longer than one can stay solvent.... I says, the hell with the "bubble," make trades based on risk over a short time frame rather than valuation which in unclear. Go with the trend, rather than trying to call the top or bottom.

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4 of 4 people have found this review helpful.

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02 May 2010
View Angelajk's Profile

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