MarketTicker Forum

Great value in his blog

I read this guy's blog, but sometimes also participate in his forum. Karl is a smart guy and alot of the stuff he writes will sometimes be too much too handle. However he writes in such a way that reading is enjoyable, I feel that I can understand what he writes. I have seen lots of revelations on his blog that I haven't seen elsewhere.

On the other hand when he presents a view with which you don't agree, and you try to argue, he can fast ban you. If he doesn't like your writings = ban.It's understandable from a business point of view, since his forum is partially paid, but probably not the smartest thing to do. For example Karl has been bearish for a long while on the economy, and as such was also bearish on the markets. The problem is that markets "can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". If karl ever listened to others, he would probably have given out better trading advice.

I would say Karl is a good macro-economist from a fundamental and common sense perspective, but a mediocre trader.

Jons

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Bear forum run by a permabear

This forum was a entertaining place to be during the bear market in 2008. The problem with this forum is that it has a bearish bias, and the administrator/owner of the forum runs the forum in a very heavy-handed manner and has a tendency to ban people on a whim, especially those who present a more bullish case.

The owner of the board, Karl Denninger, whose screen name is Genesis, seemed like a genius in 2008 when the market was going in the direction he expected it to go. During 2009 he stayed bearish, and, even after it bottomed out, he kept saying that the S&P would eventually get below 600 and he didn't think it would go higher than 900. To this day he still thinks it is possible that the S&P will get as low as 400. NOTE: He will say that he warned people about the 1220 fib and that it was possible to get that high. However, it was clear to me that he didn't really believe that we would see 1220 again. Even if SPX 400 were to ultimately turn out to be true, the problem is most forum members have been blowing out their accounts trying to short the market before the market turns. If SPX 400 doesn't happen, and the market eventually makes all time highs, then he will likely claim he warned that we could see 1576 again even though it is clear he really doesn't really believe it. He's always calling for a future crash on his blog and on his internet radio show and that is what he expects to happen. You can't trade off of those types of calls though. Saying that we could see 400, but we could also see new highs isn't something I can trade off of.

The site owner is a deflationist and he thought Gold was overvalued at $700 an ounce. As far as stocks are concerned, I think he underestimated how much the government would intervene in the markets to try prop up the banks. He believes himself to be an economist, but he tends to view everything with a bearish bias.

This forum has 2 paid levels in addition to a free level. The most expensive level is Gold level which costs around $20 per month although there may be a quarterly option. This gives the user access to the Gold level forum and access to nightly technical market analysis videos by the owner. The consensus among traders I know is that the analysis isn't that useful from a trading standpoint. The owner also posts "Ticks" during the day which are his market observations. I've found these not to be useful from a trading standpoint either.

Another issue is that the subscription fees are considered "donations" even though the forum is a business and not a charity. The owner can ban anyone at any time on a whim and, if banned, someone who paid for Gold access they will lose that access and not necessarily be given a refund. This is something you need to be aware of before donating.

The bottom line is this is a bear forum run in a heavy-handed manner by a permabear.

Venture123

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